essential
Market Regime
The overall state of the market — Bull, Neutral, or Bear — derived from Nifty's trend.
The market regime classifies the broader market into one of three states:
- Bull: Nifty above its 200-day MA, 50-day MA above 200-day MA, recent 20-day return positive. Breakout setups succeed at high rates.
- Neutral: Mixed signals. Breakout setups still work, but more selective.
- Bear: Nifty below its 200-day MA, 50-day MA below 200-day MA. Most breakouts fail. Time to be defensive.
Empirically, breakout systems have ~70%+ success rates in Bull regimes and as low as 30% in Bear regimes — even for the same technical setup. Trying to fight the regime is the dominant reason most swing-trading systems fail.
Swing Edge applies market regime as a hard gate: in Bear regimes, pre-breakout/breakout signals are suppressed unless their score is exceptional (≥85). Bearish-setup signals run full-strength.